Interest rates in the United States are low, far lower than they would normally be. The Federal Reserve has been pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy to keep them low. Is that a good thing? For the federal government it might be—in the short run—but for savers it is bad. One percent back on your savings is pretty low. The persistent, artificially low interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve Board has become a major transfer of wealth from private savers to the federal government. Low interest paid by the Treasury means low interest earned by savers. Measured against inflation, you may be letting the federal government use your money for less than nothing.
Perhaps even worse, the low interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve is supporting the colossal spending binge of the federal government. The federal government can spend trillions of dollars it does not have, because the cost of government borrowing is so cheap.
It is not naturally cheap. Normal markets would not support the continued massive deficits from Washington. When the government spends more than it takes in it has to borrow from you and me, or more particularly from our pension plans and insurance programs, as well as from banks (and foreigners, a subject for another day). Savers and banks do not, however, have an unlimited appetite for lending to the government, especially at the low rates that the government offers. In past decades, persistent federal deficits would result in rising interest rates, as investors would demand a higher return to keep them willing to buy more government bonds.
Some months ago, when the ballooning federal deficit showed no signs of easing, the Federal Reserve stepped in and started buying up hundreds of billions of dollars of government debt just as investors were backing away. Interest rates on government borrowing would have gone up, but the Federal Reserve bought up the oversupply of debt and pushed interest rates down. Interest rates on government borrowing today remain at historically low levels, six-month Treasury securities going for about one-tenth of one percent. That is way below the rising rate of inflation, which lately is at about 2.5% and going north. That means that many investors in government debt are actually losing money, the return on their government debt falling behind the rate of inflation, the government paying back the money it borrowed with dollars that buy less than the ones that they took in. Federal Reserve policies are helping this go on.
Speaking of inflation, the Federal Reserve announced this past week that it is O.K. with inflation of 2.5%, that in fact the Federal Reserve sees inflation trending toward 3% for the coming years. Some of us who remember back to the Jimmy Carter days when inflation approached closer to 20% than 10% might be tempted to think that 3% inflation sounds pretty good. Keep in mind, though, what inflation means.
Remember what money is. Money is an exchange of promises. I promise that I will give you, say, $100 worth of value, whether my goods, my time, or my services, in exchange for which you give me a certificate—money—that can be exchanged for $100 worth of goods, time, or services with someone else. Money lets me take that promise and put it in my pocket and carry it around to where I think that it will be of most use to me. Money is enormously efficient. I do not work for the grocery store. I work at my job and get paid and then take my money to the grocery store and exchange it for groceries. The store exchanges that money, in turn, for more goods, as well as to pay the salaries of the people who work there. They in turn take that money and use it for what they want.
Inflation makes all of that dishonest. I get paid the $100. If I wait a year to spend it, and there is a 3% inflation rate, that $100 dollars will then only by me what about $97 would have bought when I got paid. Of course, that is an even bigger deal if the inflation rate is 10%, my $100 only being worth some $90 of goods and services in my example. But even 3% can be a very big deal, a far bigger deal than the Federal Reserve seemed to acknowledge this past week.
Consider retirement. Not enough people do, but you should. Perhaps you are an average couple saving and investing and hoping to have a retirement income of say $80,000 per year. You have figured that you can live on that. With an inflation rate of 3%, you had better think again. Your $80,000 retirement income will only be able to buy what $40,000 or less buys today. Setting aside adequate money to save and invest for retirement is hard enough. Inflation makes it all much harder.
Massive government deficits are already driving the Federal Reserve to cheapen the return on your investments (in order to keep the federal deficit from snuffing out the weak recovery). The inflationary pressures that they are building up inside the federal volcano will undermine your retirement even further. The longer we wait to solve the deficit problem, and the interest rate and inflation dangers it spawns, the worse it all gets. Government may not be able to create wealth, but it can surely take it away.
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